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Balkan Defence Monitor 2024

Author(s): Helena Ivanov / Language(s): Serbian

Keywords: European Union; power influence; global order; globalization; geopolitics; Balkans; international relations; EU enlargement; -wing politics; Europe; Ukraine conflict; Middle East

We proudly present you the ‘BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order,’ the companion publication to the Belgrade Security Conference 2023, held in Belgrade from October 11th to 13th, 2023. This publication aims to shed light on and discuss, following the style of BSC discussions, the most significant global, regional, and local events, phenomena, and developments that have marked this year. These topics were part of the panel discussions in this year’s BSC conference program.

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Enabling Just Change in the International Health Care Governance

Author(s): Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Keywords: pandemic management; Western Balkan; covid-19;

This publication comes after months of research conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, in collaboration with its partners in the Western Balkans region - Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (Prishtina), Centre for Security Studies (Sarajevo), Institute Alternative (Podgorica), Institute for Democracy and Mediation (Tirana) and Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” (Skopje). The first stage focused on desk research over the course of nine months. Extensive desk research followed, with semi-structured interviews with public health experts conducted in order to assess the pandemic management in each of the Western Balkan countries – North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

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Violent Extremism in Serbia: Islamist and Far-right

Author(s): Predrag Petrović,Marija Ignjatijević / Language(s): English

Keywords: Extremism; Serbia; Islamist; PREVEX project

Islamist extremism in Serbia is declining despite receiving significant attention, however, its non-violent forms have gained some traction in areas like Sanjak. On the other hand, political divisions signal a growing potential for political extremism in the region. In contrast, right-wing extremism is experiencing an upward trend, largely due to the Government's inaction and favourable media reporting. Upon conducting extensive research over five years, the research team aims to give an overview of the two major forms of extremism in Serbia. The first part focuses on the roots, occurrence, and ideological basis of both the Islamist and right-wing extremism in the country. The next chapter aims to explain the international ties of extremist groups, including foreign fighters and other types of links and cooperation mechanisms with foreign extremist networks.

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Balkan Defence Monitor 2023

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: transparency; defence policies; Western Balkans; European security

The main policy purpose of the Balkan Defence Monitor remains the same as in the last year. In recent years, the local elites have misused the lack of transparency related to defence policies in the Western Balkans, turning the military into a tool of domestic political promotion rather than a public good. This model of behaviour did not cause an armed conflict, and it is unlikely that it will do so in the future. However, it has poisoned the already fractious political ties between the countries of the region and fostered an atmosphere of distrust. To counter these negative occurrences, data on the defence sector needs to be made accessible to the citizens of Western Balkan countries and the international community. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the destabilisation of the European security environment make such an approach even more relevant.

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Alarm Report on Progress of Serbia in Cluster 1 – November 2022

Author(s): Jelena Pejić Nikić / Language(s): Serbian

Keywords: PrEUgovor; prEUnup; European Union;

The reporting period – from May to October 2022 – Serbia spent with the Government in a technical mandate. The formation of the Government that should act as an engine of European integration waited until the deadline, even though the parliamentary majority was clear and the international and domestic circumstances demanded decisive action. Most of the reform activities in Cluster 1 have therefore been put on hold, starting with the drafting and adoption of regulations. Serbia is still far from achieving visible results in the areas monitored by the prEUgovor coalition. Moreover, in the previous six months, even the hitherto prevailing approach of “ticking the boxes”, i.e. piling up activities to feign reform efforts, was absent. The rule of law is temporarily marginalized by geopolitical considerations due to the consequences of Russian aggression against Ukraine and strained relations between Belgrade and Priština. Still, it remains at the core of European integration.

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Reclaiming the fundamentals – Unleashing reform potential of the EU enlargement process

Author(s): Bojan Elek,Jelena Pejić Nikić,Luka Šterić / Language(s): English

Keywords: accession process; Western Balkans; stabilocracy

The accession process so far has been both technically and politically flawed in attempting to be the driver of the transformation in the Western Balkans that would generate changes tangible for the citizens and contribute to the development of functional democracies in the region. The lack of will and convincing strategies for accelerating enlargement has been paired with the support for stabilocracy, the dominant EU approach in the last decade, which prioritized stability over reforms. The consequence of this strategy has been the region steadily becoming both less secure and less democratic, with once unquestionable European credibility and influence progressively eroding.

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Migrants are leaving, but hatred remains – the anti-migrant extreme right in Serbia

Author(s): Marija Ignjatijević,Predrag Petrović / Language(s): Serbian

Keywords: extreme right; nationalism; chauvinism

The extreme right has been present in Serbia since the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia disintegrated during the war of the 1990s. Its thematic backbone is based on Serbian nationalism and chauvinism, preserving the patriarchal family and opposing same-sex marriage, anti-globalism and strengthening ties with Russia. Migrants were not the topic of extreme right-wingers even during the “migrant crisis” of 2015 and 2016, when about a million refugees passed through Serbia. This changed three years ago, when the right-wing political parties Dveri and Dosta je bilo [Enough is enough] started to scare citizens by telling them that they would become a minority as a result of the mass settlement of migrants in Serbia. A number of extreme right-wing groups accepted this rhetoric, which soon grew into ‘civil arrests’, interception and intimidation of “illegal” migrants. Apart from the immediate consequences, such as harassment and intimidation of migrants, such activities of the extreme right have long-term, less visible consequences for society in Serbia, such as influencing the spread of views and values that are contrary to the democratic order.

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They melted down our tanks, we are creating the strongest power in the region – militarist narratives serving the purpose of state capturing

Author(s): Luka Šterić / Language(s): English

Keywords: militarist narratives: armament; authoritarian regime

Defence system capturing is done in various ways. The authorities are using the procurement of armament from different parties to achieve foreign policy goals in order to reduce the external pressure on the authoritarian regime. Insisting on military neutrality and foreign policy balancing, Serbia is trying to keep access to both the Eastern and Western armament markets. Also, through non-transparent contracts, individuals and companies close to the government opulently profit at the expense of the military industry, as well as through exporting weapons often times conducted in contravention of both domestic and international law and norms.

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The (un)desirable partner – analysis of the narrative on civil society as a tool to capture the state

Author(s): Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbian Security Policy; State Capture

As stakeholders with corrective function in a state which holds itself democratic, civil society organizations and activists indicate the threats borne by captured state. Precisely for this, the way of the government’s and public institutions’ way of communicating towards the civil society has been identified as an important element to analyse – on the one hand, due to the government’s need for legitimacy on the international scale, there are so-called “positive narratives” about civil society as a guarantor of the rule of law and democracy in the country, and, on the other hand, “negative narratives” about civil society articulated through attacks and pressure exerted on the civil society, demonstrated by unfounded statements in form of discreditation of any criticism. Both “positive” and “negative” narratives have a direct impact on the relations between the civil society and institutions in Serbia, and the indirect consequences of the relations thus fashioned on the state capturing process could also be analysed.

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There is No Democracy in Serbia, nor is it Desirable

Author(s): Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Keywords: Accountability; Activism; Serbian Security Policy; State Capture

Almost one third of the Serbian citizens feel that there is no democracy in the country, while half of them believe that it does exist, but that it experiences smaller or bigger problems. This opinion is shared mostly by young people and the population aged 30 to 39, as well as by citizens who live in Belgrade. The explanation for this view can be found in the citizens’ assessments that the main state decisions are made by the executive power, that politicians use power for the realisation of their personal interests, and that corruption – from either domestic or foreign sources – is the main driving force in the state. Consequently, almost two thirds of the population believes that politicians, organised in interest groups, abuse power for the sake of their own personal interests. They do this through the Government and the Parliament, the judiciary and the police, the state-owned enterprises and public companies that serve to manage significant public resources, and through the media as instruments that are used to legitimise the actions of politicians. These views of the citizens have been reflected also in the perception of corruption; they thus believe that political parties, the government, the judiciary, the police and the media are among the most corrupt actors in the country. In addition, 86% of the respondents believe that employment in public administration and state-owned enterprises can be gained only through corrupt mechanisms, i.e. bribery or political/family ties.

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Development of resistance against small hydropower plants in Serbia

Author(s): Dina Đorđević / Language(s): English

Keywords: Activism; Serbian Security Policy; small hydropower plants; environmental revolt; climate change

In a new case study, Dina Djordjevic, a journalist of the Centre for Investigative Reporting, presents how local actions against small hydropower plants in Serbia have turned into a mass environmental revolt at the national level.For more than a decade now, small hydropower plants (SHPPs) are being erected en masse on Serbian mountain rivers and streams. Their encouragement is part of a wider story that revolves around the fight against climate change, and around attempts to reduce the production of energy by use of coal, thus increasing the production of electricity in a way that would be less harmful to nature and human health.

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Legal Position of Human Rights Defenders in Serbia in Terms of Basic Human Rights – Freedom of Expression, Freedom of Assembly, the Right to Liberty and Security, and the Right to Association

Author(s): Milena Vasić / Language(s): English

Keywords: Activism; Serbian Security Policy

This document aims to positively address the legal framework of four basic rights that are necessary for human rights defenders to be able to perform their activities, to point out problems in legislation, but also to present a real picture of the position of activists in Serbia who encounter direct or indirect violations of these rights on a daily basis.Freedom of expression, freedom of peaceful assembly, the right to liberty and security, and freedom of association are often inseparable rights when it comes to any form of activism. In this document, they were specifically addressed because it is precisely these rights that were violated by most of the recorded attacks and pressures suffered by human rights defenders. In its practice, the European Court of Human Rights frequently connects these four rights and emphasises their importance in a democratic society.

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Security sector in a captured state: act two

Author(s): Predrag Petrović,Jelena Pejić Nikić,Luka Šterić / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbian Security Policy; State Capture

Due to the damage that state capture causes to the public interest, it is very important to investigate and closely monitor this process in the security sector of Serbia. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy was the first organisation in the country to point out this negative process and the role that the security sector plays in it. It has conducted its first research on this topic, the findings of which can be found in a study entitled “Capturing the Security Sector of Serbia”. The study in front of you is a continuation of that research. In it, we monitored and documented further state capture and the role of security institutions in that negative process. The research covered the period from the beginning of 2020 to November 2021. It explained the political context of capturing the state, the security services, the police, the army and the Ministry of Defence, within which we analysed the capture of special-purpose [arms] industry and parliamentary oversight of the security sector. Considering the fact that actors who participate in state capture are trying to secure international support for their endeavor, and that they are also making use of the experiences of other captured states, we have analysed the foreign policy aspect of capturing the state, which is a novelty compared to earlier research.

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Managing change and uncertainty within a Serbian think tank

Author(s): Igor Bandović / Language(s): English

Keywords: Think Tanks; Western Balkans; Leadership Transition; Organizational Resilience

After two years as director of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP), I have written this piece about the process BCSP went through to consolidate itself as an organisation and to spearhead the work of the think tank community in Serbia and the Balkans on contested and challenging topics in the times of global crisis. Here is our story.

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A Quasi-Arms Race: Serbia and Croatia

Author(s): Marija Ignjatijević,Vuk Vuksanović / Language(s): English

Keywords: arms race; Serbia and Croatia; Arms Procurement; Serbia-Croatia Relations; Military Modernization; Regional Mistrust

In the last six years, Serbia and Croatia have been upgrading their military arsenals, leading to the conclusion that the two countries are spearheading a new arms race in the Western Balkans. This narrative is misleading as the strategic environment makes inter-state war unlikely and the process is actually about Serbia and Croatia replacing old equipment from the Yugoslav days. However, the two countries use arms procurement as leverage in their respective foreign policies and tools of domestic promotion for their rulling elites. The return of hostility is highly unlikely, but there is a political threat of cementing an atmosphere of mistrust in the region.

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The Crime-Politics Nexus Entrapping The Balkans

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkans; EU integration; crime-politics

In some of the countries of the Western Balkans, criminal groups and political elites have grown increasingly interdependent. In particular, Serbia’s and Montenegro’s societies have suffered the most from these links. The two countries have long been considered frontrunners in the EU integration process, whose final completion, however, is difficult to foresee. Similarly, Albania’s EU negotiating process has also been delayed for years, in part because of the country’s role in global drug trafficking schemes. The crime-politics nexus is contributing to the erosion of the rule of law in several Balkan countries, where the risk – or reality – of state capture is increasingly worrisome. In light of recent events, Serbia appears to be the most concerning case as its authoritarian drift currently seems hard to reverse. Which consequences does the situation in Serbia have on other Balkan countries? What impact does state capture have on regional stability? And what is changing for the region’s integration prospects with the EU?

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Protection of Public Interest by Legal Means – Judgment of the Administrative Court in the “Cable Car” Case

Author(s): Jovana Rajić,Marko Popović / Language(s): English

Keywords: cable car terminal; Kalemegdan; Activism; Serbian Security Policy

On 12 February 2021, the Administrative Court issued the judgment concerning the lawsuit that was filed by the Regulatory Institute for Renewable Energy and Environment (RERI), in which it approved the plaintiff’s request and annulled the building permit for the construction of a cable car terminal in Kalemegdan. The Court accepted the arguments of the plaintiff (RERI) and annulled the decision (building permit) of the Ministry of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure, returning the case to the competent first instance body for retrial.

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Attacks on Civil Society Activists and Organizations in Serbia in 2020

Author(s): Bojana Selaković / Language(s): English

Keywords: Activism; Serbian Security Policy; political crisis; Serbia; extremism

Lack of institutional dialogue has led to a deepening of the political crisis in Serbia, which has been recognised by international organisations such as the European Parliament, the European Commission and other organisations dealing with the protection and promotion of human rights. Such an environment has also contributed to the further polarisation of society, the spread of inflammatory and discriminatory rhetoric, and the rise of extremism due to the lack of action of the competent state authorities. These trends have inevitably affected all civil society organisations, regardless of the range of values they represent.

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Covidocracy – An Analysis of Narratives About the Pandemic in the Function of Capturing the State

Author(s): Jelena Pejić Nikić,Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbian Security Policy; State Capture; Covid-19

Although the analysis covers the entire year 2020 and the beginning of 2021, the greatest attention was given to the state of emergency in the spring of 2020. The construction of the narrative was facilitated in the conditions of excessive presence of government representatives in the media, at almost daily press conferences, addresses to the nation, and numerous appearances of the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister, doctors from the government’s Crisis Response Team and several ministers on television. In addition, access to authentic information on the consequences of the pandemic was largely denied to the public. In that narrative, the holders of power, the President of the Republic in particular, were presented as skillful and dedicated saviors of the citizens from the plague. The elderly population, the functionality of the healthcare system and the economy took turns as priorities (victims) that needed to be protected.

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Murder of the Law – No Justice for Mountain Rivers

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Activism; Serbian Security Policy

On 15 August 2020, activists from all parts of Serbia have gathered in the vicinity of the village of Rakita and removed part of the pipeline of the mini hydro power plant “Zvonce” (“Little Bell”) on the Rakita River. This was one of the largest initiatives of environmental activists (as well as other citizens interested in environmental protection) in the last few years in Serbia. The action was, in fact, a reflection of an increasing number of initiatives and movements that deal with endangered environment, and an increasing number of examples where investors endanger the environmental safety, both of citizens and beyond. In order to fully understand how and why the construction of MHPPs on the Rakita River became a national-level topic, the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy – in cooperation with the movement “Let’s Defend the Rivers of Stara Planina [Old Mountain]” – developed a case study to better understand the context, activities and problems that led to the “Rakita issue” becoming a topic that attracted the attention of a large number of citizens of the Republic of Serbia.

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Series:Beogradski Centar za Bezbednosnu Politiku - Analysis

Balkan Defence Monitor 2024

Enabling Just Change in the International Health Care Governance

Violent Extremism in Serbia: Islamist and Far-right

Balkan Defence Monitor 2023

Alarm Report on Progress of Serbia in Cluster 1 – November 2022

Reclaiming the fundamentals – Unleashing reform potential of the EU enlargement process

Migrants are leaving, but hatred remains – the anti-migrant extreme right in Serbia

They melted down our tanks, we are creating the strongest power in the region – militarist narratives serving the purpose of state capturing

The (un)desirable partner – analysis of the narrative on civil society as a tool to capture the state

There is No Democracy in Serbia, nor is it Desirable

Development of resistance against small hydropower plants in Serbia

Legal Position of Human Rights Defenders in Serbia in Terms of Basic Human Rights – Freedom of Expression, Freedom of Assembly, the Right to Liberty and Security, and the Right to Association

Security sector in a captured state: act two

Managing change and uncertainty within a Serbian think tank

A Quasi-Arms Race: Serbia and Croatia

The Crime-Politics Nexus Entrapping The Balkans

Protection of Public Interest by Legal Means – Judgment of the Administrative Court in the “Cable Car” Case

Attacks on Civil Society Activists and Organizations in Serbia in 2020

Covidocracy – An Analysis of Narratives About the Pandemic in the Function of Capturing the State

Murder of the Law – No Justice for Mountain Rivers