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The Coronavirus Pandemic and Effectiveness of the U.S. Biological Threats Early Warning System

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to the U.S. was preceded by long-term predictions and numerous direct warnings of the dangerously evolving situation in China. Documents leaked to date suggest that all these signals were ignored by President Donald Trump and his advisors. This is why the Trump administration’s reaction at the beginning was to politicise the crisis, which will likely result in special investigation by Congress. Despite this issue, the early warning of biological threats and countering them may become a prospective area of cooperation within NATO and between the U.S. and European Union.

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Pandemia COVID-19 a skuteczność systemu ostrzegania przed zagrożeniami biologicznymi w USA

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Pandemię COVID-19 w USA poprzedziły długofalowe prognozy i liczne bezpośrednie ostrzeżenia o niebezpiecznym rozwoju sytuacji w Chinach. Ujawnione dotychczas dokumenty administracji sugerują, że sygnały te zostały zignorowane przez Donalda Trumpa i jego otoczenie. Dlatego kwestia reakcji administracji prezydenta w pierwszych tygodniach pandemii została upolityczniona i zaowocuje prawdopodobnie specjalnym dochodzeniem Kongresu. Pomimo tych problemów wczesne ostrzeganie o zagrożeniach biologicznych i usuwanie ich skutków mogą stać się perspektywicznymi obszarami współpracy w NATO oraz UE z USA.

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China’s “Zero COVID” Policy Fails

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

In the face of the deteriorating economic situation and protests, the Chinese authorities modified the rules of fighting the pandemic. In December, they lifted most of the restrictions, which resulted in a rapid increase in infections and other effects. While maintaining the rhetoric about the positive effects of the “zero COVID” policy, they present the changes as the next stage in the fight against the coronavirus. In the next few months, the authorities’ decisions may bring about an improvement in the economic situation at the expense of, among others, the deaths of millions of Chinese.

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EU Development Cooperation Policy Shifts from Charity to Self-interest

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

In recent years, the EU’s development cooperation policy has evolved, moving away from an approach based on poverty eradication and the needs of partner countries to focusing more on its own interests. This change is supported by the majority of EU members. This gives the EU the opportunity to exert strategic influence in the world but risks the loss of its unique identity as an altruistic donor and attractive partner in development cooperation. The change in the Union’s approach is consistent with the position of Poland, which can use it to reform and strengthen its development aid system.

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EU Aid For Ukraine Reconstruction - Assumptions and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

On 18 May, the European Commission (EC) proposed a new financial instrument for the reconstruction of Ukraine and a mechanism for planning and coordinating international aid. The challenges will be to obtain sufficient funds and ensure an effective system for their use. Topping up the fund by confiscating Russia’s reserves frozen in the EU remains an open issue. Poland may encourage the EC to increase the role of local governments and organisations in aid implementation and promote the country’s experience in this field.

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Countries Seek Reforms of the International Public Health Governance System

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

To date, the results of efforts to improve the international community’s ability to prevent and respond to future pandemics show that countries do recognise the need to increase funding for these capabilities. However, they are much less unanimous about the scale and direction of changes to existing regulations in this sphere despite the fact that insufficiently precise responsibilities and lack of sanctions for not meeting them were the main reasons for the failure of efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19. Efforts to reform these regulations could be served by closer cooperation between the EU and the U.S.

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Biden’s Most Urgent Task: Fighting the Pandemic

Author(s): Mateusz M. Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The Biden administration is expected to take decisive action to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences, including stimulation of the economy. For this reason, in the first months of this presidency, Biden will focus the government’s activities on domestic issues, including implementing a new pandemic strategy and funding another stimulus package. In terms of the international fight against the pandemic, Biden has already retracted the notice of the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO. The administration also announced that it will join the international vaccine initiative COVAX.

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The Deployment of COVID-19 Vaccines in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israel most likely will become first country in the world to reach full vaccination of its resident population against COVID-19. The success of the vaccination deployment was possible due to its quick securing of supply, an efficient distribution system, and high mobilisation of society. On the political level, ending the pandemic will strengthen Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and improve his electoral prospects. The successful deployment will also become a permanent part of Israeli image policy.

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EU’s Slow Start in the Vaccine Race

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

By procuring COVID-19 vaccines together, EU Member States ensured that they would have equal access to them. However, the EU concluded contracts with producers later then the UK and the U.S., which, as pharmaceutical companies hit production snags, continued to receive deliveries, unlike the Member States. This delay will affect more than just the countries involved because a slower vaccine rollout could weaken public support for the Union and its international standing.

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The Importance of COVID-19 Vaccines in Chinese Foreign Policy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Shipments of Chinese vaccines abroad are to demonstrate China’s effectiveness in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthen its political influence around the world. The country also wants to increase the credibility of its biotechnology companies on the global market. The implementation of these plans may be hampered by the lack of reliable studies on the Chinese vaccines and the demand for them in China itself. To fight the pandemic and counter China’s influence, the EU may make some of its vaccines available to developing countries through COVAX, in cooperation with the U.S. when it joins the initiative.

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Towards a Global Pandemic Treaty

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The EU, the World Health Organisation (WHO), and a group of countries are calling for a treaty to create an effective system to prevent future pandemics. The initiative is ambitious, but its broad scope may make it difficult for the proposal to be universally accepted. The priorities of the countries negotiating such a treaty should be to improve the effectiveness of the exchange and verification of information on public health threats and the monitoring and enforcement of compliance with adopted regulations. Given the global nature of challenges such as COVID-19, it is in Poland’s interest to join the debate on new regulations.

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Lessons from the Pandemic: Update of the EU Industrial Strategy

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The update of the EU industrial strategy confirms the intention strongly accented in its original version to strengthen the Community’s position in the global economic competition. At the same time, the EU remains an advocate of openness and free trade. However, it wants to modify the rules, favouring equal competition and sustainable development. Participation in existing and planned EU projects can facilitate the technological modernisation of Polish enterprises, necessary for achieving the objectives of the green and digital transformations.

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EU Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan: Needs and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

The Taliban offensive in Afghanistan has deepened the humanitarian crisis in the country. Afghans are struggling now with forced displacement as well as a food and health crisis. The EU will increase its humanitarian aid, but its effectiveness will be limited by dangerous working conditions for NGOs. This requires an agreement with the Taliban to respect humanitarian law.

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Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The uneven access to COVID-19 vaccines in Latin American countries has resulted in a widely varied pace of immunisation. The region has relied mainly on direct purchases from China and Russia, among others, the global COVAX initiative, and donations from the U.S. and other countries. Russia, China, and the U.S. in particular are using this “vaccine diplomacy” to boost their own political and economic influence in Latin America. The EU has been trying to position itself against that rivalry, for example, through significant funding for vaccine access and distribution initiatives. These efforts require, however, more efficient promotion of the Union’s engagement.

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Growing Global Inequality: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Developing Countries

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The poorest countries will be the ones most affected by the long-term economic and social effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Delays in vaccinations and insufficient resources to prompt an economic recovery deepen their poverty. The deepening of economic inequality in the world will lead to destabilisation, increased migration pressure, and difficulties in achieving climate goals. That is why G20 leaders have announced that they will accelerate vaccination campaigns in the poorest countries. The EU can focus on increasing the supply of vaccines to developing countries and the recovery of their economies from the pandemic.

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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on International Migration

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic has halted the rising trend of international migration. It has disproportionately affected irregular migrants and refugees, as well as the economies of countries where economic migrants play a major role. The return to the pre-pandemic state is hampered by disparities in access to vaccines, different regulations on arrivals to many countries, a lack of coordination in the recognition of vaccination certificates, and in other areas. The EU can support the development of global standards for accepting certificates. It may also be interested in resuming discussions on changes to international agreements regulating migration and assistance to refugees.

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COVID-19’s Impact on the South Korean Economy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

South Korea’s economy probably will not avoid recession this year, but it will be less severe than in other highly developed countries. The deteriorating economic situation in South Korea’s main trading partners - China, the U.S., and the EU - has weakened its own economic indicators. Despite the pandemic, South Korean companies continue foreign investments as planned, including in Central Europe. Rising tensions between China and the U.S. may strengthen the investment commitment of South Korean companies in Southeast Asia..

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The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Pandemic

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The fight against the spread of the coronavirus in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has forced cooperation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which were in conflict within the GCC. At the same time, the UAE took advantage of other countries’ need for support in countering COVID-19 to strengthen relations with China, Iran, and Syria, among others. The UAE’s activity emphasizes its ambition for domination of the region, which may lead to a new dispute within the GCC between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

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France and China: Post-Pandemic Relations

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

China’s lack of transparency in informing the world about COVID-19 at the early stage of the epidemic and attempts to pressure some EU states have awakened doubts in France about the benefits of bilateral relations with this country. The French government still wants to develop beneficial economic cooperation but at the same time will try to decrease the dependency of some industries on China. It will also aim to elaborate a common EU policy towards China. The latter will demand France consider the interests of other Member States in economic and industrial policy.

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Political Tensions and the Failure to Curb COVID-19 in Brazil

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The spread rate of COVID-19 in Brazil is increasing and the policies of the federal government, headed by President Jair Bolsonaro, do not contribute to a slowdown in the pandemic. Bolsonaro downplays the threat and rejects restrictive measures as he prioritises support for the economy. He has clashed with state governors who introduced restrictions and with the Federal Supreme Court, which defended their autonomy. The deteriorating situation in Brazil amid the pandemic and political situation diminish Bolsonaro’s chances of re-election in 2022 and may strain his government’s relations with EU partners.

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