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№19: The Muslim Brotherhood in a Post-Dictator Reality

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is one of the main beneficiaries of the socio-political changes in the Arab world. Its pragmatic Islamism is gaining widespread popularity in the region, as expressed at the ballot box as parties either formed by the Brotherhood itself (such as the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party) or inspired by it (such as the Tunisian Ennahda) dominate elections in the Arab world. After a turbulent history spanning almost 90 years, the Brotherhood is finally becoming a force in the world of political power. Such an advance offers a unique chance for the organisation, which in effect functions mostly as a confederated alliance of social movements operating in different Middle Eastern and North African countries, to develop and grow. However, it also carries risks associated with newly gained political responsibility, and the need to strike a balance between some of its members’ and followers’ cultural, economic, political and social expectations and the extent to which these could be addressed and fulfilled by, for example, the Brotherhood-dominated government of Egypt.

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Israel and the Arab states: between conflict and interdependence

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

In late 2020 and early 2021, Israel established official diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (the Abraham Accords), renewed its relations with Morocco, and took steps towards establishing relations with Sudan, in a series of developments that occurred with extensive US involvement. These were Israel’s first normalisation deals since the agreements with Egypt (1979), the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO, 1993) and Jordan (1994). The following factors paved the way for this process: changes in the region related to the aftermath of the Arab Spring (the desire of Arab regimes to consolidate power, also by countering radical Islam that feeds on the struggle against Israel), the growing Iranian threat, US policy, as well as economic and energy transitions.

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A multi-speed mobilisation. NATO’s eastern flank one year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has challenged the security of the countries of NATO's eastern flank on an unprecedented scale. The Baltic states, the Visegrad Group and the Black Sea states are all situated in the neighbourhood of Ukraine or Russia. Due to the invasion, the sense of threat posed by Russia has escalated significantly, although Russia had already been seen as a threat in the region since at least the annexation of Crimea in 2014. All these countries are advocates of strengthening NATO’s collective defence and allied presence on the eastern flank. Most of them are among the top contributors to the political and military support provided to Ukraine. Defence policy and the modernisation of the armed forces have clearly gained priority throughout the region.

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War as the new normal: Ukraine six months since the Russian invasion

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

On 24 August 2021 Ukraine was celebrating the beginning of the fourth decade of its independence. Selected units of its Armed Forces paraded through Khreshchatyk, Kyiv’s main street. It would never have occurred to the Ukrainian citizens and politicians or foreign guests who gathered on that day in Kyiv that half a year later the same units would face a full-scale invasion, and even more so, that six months after invasion they would still be successfully defending themselves. After six months, war is slowly becoming the new normal. Although Russia is trudging towards the borders of the Donetsk oblast in the east, and Ukraine still lacks sufficient forces to launch a counteroffensive in the south, the series of explosions at military facilities seen in August in Crimea, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014, shows that Kyiv has the potential for offensive actions. The Ukrainian public is getting poorer and increasingly tired, but it still remains resolute in resisting the aggressor and supporting the government’s policies. Only a small minority believe that Ukraine should put an end to the war at the price of political concessions, and the view that territorial concessions should be made remains a marginal one. The economy is also adapting to the wartime conditions. Despite the deep crisis, the decline in exports is abating, and companies are resuming their businesses or moving them to safer areas of the country while looking for new sales channels abroad. However, the state budget is still dependent on financial support from the West, and this will not change in the coming months.

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Ukrainian oligarchs in wartime

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Russia’s military invasion has contributed to a major decline in the role of oligarchs in Ukraine. This is largely due to the fact that domestic political rivalry both in the media and in parliament has ceased, which in turn has reduced the role played by those spheres of life in which their influence was most perceptible. Ukraine’s main political forces have backed President Volodymyr Zelensky in defending the country, as a result of which laws are presently passed almost unanimously. In addition, the most important oligarch-owned TV stations, which before the war formed their main tool of influence, have decided to air a joint news programme. Alongside this, the owners’ control of broadcasting content has been further weakened through specific legal regulations. Some oligarchs have lost portions of their assets as a result of military activity and occupation, and some have suffered significant financial losses due to the economic crisis and export restrictions in a situation when they still need to service their foreign debt. Most of the oligarchs have offered funds to help the country in its fight against the aggressor, but some of these activities are being kept low-profile. If the war’s outcome is positive for Ukraine, and if Kyiv receives substantial Western support for its recovery and investment effort, the position of the oligarchs will diminish, and the president, who enjoys an enormously high level of trust from society, will in practical terms be free to continue to reduce the oligarchs’ influence on Ukraine’s political life.

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A war not won, a war not lost. The military situation after 100 days of the Russian aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

One hundred days of Russian aggression against Ukraine has still not answered the basic question: who will win? The first phase of the clash – a manoeuvre warfare until the end of March, in which the aggressor had broadly defined operational goals – ended in failure for Russia, and resulted in it withdrawing from one of the two main theatres of operations and reducing its aspirations in other directions. The trench warfare phase, which has lasted since the turn of April, has not led to a breakthrough, but the extended actions have exhausted the Ukrainian army to an extent that the enemy has been able to make slow but consistent progress in achieving its assumed minimum goal: taking control of the entire Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea. Moscow has largely achieved this aim; since 24 February it has taken control of80,000 km² of Ukraine’s territory. It is not enough simply to maintain the status quo regarding external support for Ukraine, without which it will no longer be able to fight off the aggressor. The comprehensive rearming of the Ukrainian army with Western weapons and military equipment offers a chance to stop the Russian aggression. Moreover, in order to defeat Russia militarily, the West must display an attitude of consistent solidarity.

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Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Despite the war that has been raging for more than two months, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although estimates are that the areas cultivated will be up to30% smaller than in 2021. A fuel shortage could also be a problem during this year’s harvest. Nor is it clear what the harvest will look like in the occupied territories. Currently, there is no risk of a food deficit, as the country has very significant grain stocks (about 20 million tonnes), exceeding the annual consumption for some species. However, problems may arise in this regard in the Russian-occupied areas as the occupiers have been confiscating grain. The biggest challenge for Kyiv remains the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, through which the vast majority of food (especially grains and vegetable oils) has been exported. Although the infrastructure of the most important of these ports has not suffered, it seems unlikely that they will resume operations in the coming months, even if a ceasefire was to be reached. This is because Moscow will be keen to continue the economic pressure. Ukraine will thus be forced to continue using alternative supply routes via EU countries, particularly Poland and Romania.

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War dictatorship: power and society in Russia

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska),Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

With the start of the war against Ukraine, the Putin regime is taking on more and more features of a totalitarian system. The authorities are aiming for a total information blockade and a ‘rally around the flag’, including through the use of a massive propaganda campaign that is demonising Ukraine and the West. The degree of repression against the disloyal elements of society is growing. The few anti-war protests occurring in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been nipped in the bud. One of the direct consequences of the invasion is the increase in emigration from Russia for political reasons. Although there is a lack of reliable sociological data on the real mood in Russian society, one can see a relatively high level of support for the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine or else passive acceptance of the Kremlin’s policy. Although society is beginning to suffer from the effects of Western sanctions (they include rapidly rising prices of basic products and a shortage of goods), there is no reason to expect any mass protests on economic grounds in the near future. The situation within the ruling elite also appears stable, despite the deep frustration among many groups of influence caused by the sanctions. Western restrictive measures have significantly raised the cost of participation in the Putin regime. Anti-war calls from the representatives of the establishment are few and far between, and they usually avoid direct criticism of the Kremlin, which maintains the ability to discipline those who are discontented. The narrow circle of decision makers, which comprises mainly the heads of secret services and law enforcement bodies, seems to fully share the objectives and methods of war set out by the president.

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Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Recent weeks have brought further displays of Russia’s escalating aggressive rhetoric and actions towards Ukraine, including troop movements near its border, as well as use of energy as leverage. This raises questions about Moscow’s intentions. Both the statements of Russian leaders and the policy of the Russian Federation in recent years indicate that it has not abandoned attempts to achieve one of its main policy objectives: restoring control over Ukraine. This is despite the fact that its actions to date – both limited military aggression and political, economic, and propaganda pressure – have only moved it further away from this goal. In the current conditions, with the stalemate in the Donbas conflict continuing, the Russian Federation is faced with a choice of its future strategy towards Ukraine. It has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv’s gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behaviour of key Western actors.

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The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

A year after the end of the second Karabakh war, the situation in the South Caucasus evades simple definition. On the one hand, it seems relatively stable: most of the provisions of the tripartite Statement that gave rise to the end of the fighting are being implemented. Moreover, apart from a defeated and weakened Armenia, all the actors involved in the war have reasons to be satisfied: Azerbaijan has regained control of most of the disputed territories and has proved its strength; Turkey, which supported Baku, has reaffirmed and expanded its influence in the region; Russia has strengthened its position as a regulator of the conflict, as mediator and guarantor of the agreement. On the other hand, however, the region is much more ‘deregulated’ and unstable than it was before the war: the ceasefire on the Karabakh front is based on a document of low formal status, as the real peace process is still frozen; the sense of satisfaction among all the participants (especially Baku and Ankara) is at an unsatisfactorily low level in relation to the ambitions awakened within their societies. Finally, the impression that the entire regional order is being undermined is not waning as the Turkish-Russian rivalry grows and – on the other hand – the role of the West and Iran, which played practically no role during the conflict or the year since its end, is marginalized.

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High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

NATO’s northern flank plays an increasingly important role in the security of the Euro--Atlantic area. Russia’s forces in the Northern Military District pose not only a conventional threat to Norway, but also a nuclear threat to the whole NATO, including the United States and Canada due to submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russian Federation has been consistently increasing its military presence in the Arctic and its military activity along Norway’s borders. Deterring Russia in the High North, in increasingly close cooperation with the allies, is thus a key task for the Norwegian Armed Forces. Oslo is gradually lifting Cold War restrictions in the defence sphere and intensifying military cooperation with the US, which is stirring up political controversy in the country. From the US perspective, NATO’s northern flank is becoming more vital for containing Moscow. That is why they signed the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement with Norway, expanding US troop access to military infrastructure there.

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Time to exist and resist: the European Union and Russian political war

Author(s): Mark Galeotti / Language(s): English

Russia is waging a political war campaign of active measures intended to divide, distract, and dismay European states, not as a prelude to any direct military aggression but as a substitute. The institutions of the European Union have made very patchy and often reluctant responses to this campaign, in part as a result of a lack of consensus among member states, in part because the necessary measures – which often focus on cohesion, legitimacy, and more effective counter-intelligence activity – are controversial, complex, long-term and expensive. A primary issue, though, is the dramatically different strategic cultures and operational codes of the EU and Russia. Moscow subscribes to an essentially confrontation, zero-sum perspective that at best interprets the EU’s more inclusive approach as naive, at worse as a pose, concealing malign intent. The EU and member states need to appreciate and understand the nature, scale and objectives of Russia’s political war, and specifically the lack of any set doctrine or “playbook.” This will require deeper investment in expertise within the institutions of the Commission, as well as broadening European understandings of “security.” Addressing issues of corruption, institutional legitimacy, social cohesion and governance is a crucial security concern. Countries at most risk from the ‘legitimacy gap’ are more vulnerable to Russian interference and subversion. The EU must appreciate that as an alliance, weaknesses in the counter-intelligence capacities of one state is a vulnerability for all. There needs to be greater effort on this, and a consensus on the minimum level of acceptable spending on this. The immediate challenge is to act more decisively and collectively to reduce the effectiveness of the instruments used by Moscow in its political war, especially those not simply operating on direct instructions but “adhocrats” seeking to please Moscow. This requires more detailed intelligence gathering, analysis and sharing, which could fall within the remit of INTCEN.

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The EU’s mission to rebuild Ukraine: problems and priorities

Author(s): Artur KOLDOMASOV,Taras Prodaniuk / Language(s): English

Since February 24 of this year, as Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political stability in Europe has been disturbed. The continued destruction of Ukraineʼs economy and infrastructure is exacerbating the world crisis and putting parts of the world on the brink of a food crisis. The Ukrainian Recovery Plan presented in Lugano proposes the reconstruction of Ukraine. Since receiving a candidate status, Ukraine is also one step further on its course to membership in the European Union. All this places the EU into the role of the main guardian of the countryʼs post-war reconstruction. This paper recommendsthat the EU and, in particular, the Czech Presidency should organize a comprehensive assistance in this regard and identifies its main priorities. First, besides assisting in upgrading the institutional capacities and efficiency of the central government, the EU should support the local actors and civil society partners in the post-war governance. Second, the post-war recovery should connect Ukraineʼs immediate reconstruction and reform needs and the EUʼs long-term digital and green priorities rather than prioritizing one over the other.

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Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2020)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

The document discusses the complexity of the global security environment and the emergence of hyper-risks due to interconnected anthropogenic systems. It suggests increasing resilience against hyper-risks by dividing existing systems into smaller units and creating circuit breakers to prevent cascading global reactions. The publication explores creative thinking about the future without precise probabilistic predictions, acknowledging the sudden and unexpected nature of significant events in complex systems, famously termed "black swans" by Nassim Taleb. It also examines geopolitical risks, the relative decline of US power, and the potential for a G-zero World scenario. The project's methodology is based on the complexity of the security environment, rejecting precise probabilistic forecasts and instead offering internally consistent hypotheses about future developments to aid in strategic thinking.

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Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2017)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

Držíte v rukou závěrečnou studii vznikající v rámci projektu TA ČR Scénáře mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí. Uzavírá se jí tříletý cyklus kolektivních spekulací týmu soustředěného v Ústavu mezinárodních vztahů o možnostech vývoje tohoto prostředí. Projekce, které vznikly jako výstupy těchto spekulací, nemají ambici být přesnými předpověďmi. Vysoká komplexita mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí jako systému, kde dochází k dynamické interakci množství předem daných skutečností, hybných sil a kritických neznámých, možnost takové předpovědi téměř vylučuje. Naše scénáře sledují jiný cíl: kombinací prediktivního (jaká budoucnost bude) a explorativního (jaká budoucnost může být) přístupu a záměrnou vícečetností podobně pravděpodobných projekcí vývoje v každém sektoru bezpečnostního prostředí být nástroji tvořivého promýšlení možných budoucností, rozšiřování horizontu úvah o tom, jak přispět k naplňování jejich z hlediska české zahraniční politiky nejvýhodnějších variant a zkoušení zažitých předpokladů o tom, co bezpečnostním prostředím, ve kterém se Česká republika nachází, hýbe.

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3De-evolution of Europe - The equation of Communism with Nazism

Author(s): Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English

It was indeed cynical and out-of-touch for the EU (Parliament) to suddenly blame, after 80 years, the Soviet Union for triggering WWII. It is unwise (to say least) to resurrect the arguments surrounding the circumstances of the start of World War II. The historians have agreed, the history has been written and well documented, and is in our books already for many decades. There is no point in contemporary politicians of eastern flank of the EU (with a striking but complicit silence from the central Europe) pushing up the facts regarding who was to blame. There are neither mandated, nor qualified or even expected to do so.

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Geopolitics & Organized Crime and Corruption in the Early 21st Century with Reference to the Balkans

Author(s): Blagoje Grahovac / Language(s): English

Let’s summarize the main determinants of political and social developments of the Northern Hemisphere (and beyond) over the last two centuries. In short, national states were built in the 19th and civic states in the 20th century. Political jargon for all socio-political processes has established an original term - the new world order. If we simply relied on this term, then the main determinant of the "new world order" for the 21st century would be contained in the formula: with democratization into integration until globalization.

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PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF SERBIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE MIDST OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Author(s): Vuk Vuksanović,Luka Šterić,Maja Bjeloš / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine did not significantly affect the perception of the Serbian public regarding the major issues of Serbian foreign and security policy. In this context, this relates to how Serbian citizens think about the influence of great powers in their country and how the public perceives its relations with Russia and Western security institutions, the EU and NATO. The public opinion surveys also showed that the issue of Kosovo is still being perceived as a major foreign policy priority. There is a powerful cynicism in how the Serbian public views great power influences, as most respondents believe that external great powers bribe Serbian politicians and moguls to further their interests in the country. Russia and China are perceived as close foreign policy partners of Serbia, putting them in clear advantage over those who favour the EU on that front. The respondents also believed that Russia and China are sincere friends of Serbia and not players guided by their self-interest. As opposed to the study conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) in 2020, which noted that Serbs perceived Chinese influence in the country as more positive than Russian influence, the latest survey shows that those who believe Russian influence in Serbia is positive have a slight edge over those who believe the same about Chinese influence. This is most likely the result of the fact that China has not been in the spotlight in recent months.

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WAR ECHOES INTENSIFY FEARS - VIEWS OF SERBIAN CITIZENS ON RELATIONS IN THE REGION

Author(s): Gorana Pebić,Ivana Ranković,Luka Šterić / Language(s): English

The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy conducted the annual public opinion survey on relations in the region, with a special focus on the Western Balkan countries and current events and trends. This report analyses Serbian citizens’ views on three main topics – the possibility of conflicts in the Balkans, Serbia’s bilateral relations with its neighbours, as well as key benefits and opportunities of regional cooperation and initiatives. Due to the current war in Ukraine and the war-mongering rhetoric in the Balkans, the fear of outbreak of conflict in the Balkans has risen. Compared to results from 2020, when more than half of citizens were not afraid of possible conflicts at all, the 2022 survey shows that almost two thirds of respondents are to a certain extent afraid of the outbreak of conflicts in the region in the next five years. Concerning potential causes of the conflict in the region, two-thirds of Serbian citizens believe that it is very or somewhat likely that a conflict might break out over the status of Kosovo. On the other hand, the results of the survey indicate a significant decrease in support of the reintroduction of mandatory military service, in comparison to results from 2020. When it comes to bilateral relations between Serbia and its neighbouring countries, the data shows a decline in support for potential separation of Republic of Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina and unification with Serbia. Citizens believe that relations between Serbia and Montenegro have not improved significantly, despite the signing of the Fundamental Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church. On the contrary, the negative perception of Serbian public towards Albania has slightly improved over the last two years, mainly due to the closer cooperation between the leaders of the two countries through the Open Balkan initiative. However, regional relations are still seen as strained, in part due to the promotion of the concept of Serbian world which creation is supported by slightly more than 40% of citizens. In 2022, the focus of the public in terms of regional cooperation was directed more directly to the Open Balkan initiative as a platform for collaboration between Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia. Although the data show an increase in the number of Serbian citizens who are familiar with the idea, there are still no concrete and publicly visible results of the initiative

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České balancování Čínské a Tchajwanské agendy: Improvizací netřeba

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): Czech

The contradictions surrounding the terminated Prague-Beijing treaty and the planned trips of Senate Presidents Jaroslav Kubera and his successor Miroslav Vystrčil to Taiwan have unexpectedly problematicized the view of Czech policy balancing between Taiwan and China. Will our Taiwanese contacts disrupt relations with the politically more important China and damage our economic interests in the PRC? The well-managed practice of simultaneously balancing Czech interests in Taiwan and China, lasting over two decades, has unexpectedly become complicated and has become the subject of sharp disputes about supporting Taiwan and defending national dignity from pressure from the Chinese embassy. The following text recaps the experience of the Czech Republic's dual diplomacy towards the PRC and Taiwan and identifies a crisis of confidence in the use of options that are easily offered, that have proven successful, and that the Czech Republic learned to manage already in the 1990s. The escalation of the Czech domestic debate is observed in connection with the split in Czech policy towards China and its domestic politicization. Taiwan has become another example of how the Czech public debate in mediatized abbreviations shifts to identity stories that distract attention from the essence, which is the common pragmatic need of the state's foreign policy. The conclusion recommends a return to proven practice and consideration of strengthening the positions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the government, which should not be exposed to the role of bystanders. Visits by Czech state representatives to Taiwan at the highest level - the President, Prime Minister, line minister and chairmen of both chambers of the Parliament of the Czech Republic - for substantive and relevant reasons, it is not necessary to reject them a priori, but to proceed with them as exceptional steps subject to the consensus of politically responsible actors. In this context, the trip of the President of the Senate to Taiwan is insufficiently justified.

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