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№036: Belarus Before the Elections: The Struggle to Maintain the Status Quo

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The campaign ahead of the elections to the Belarusian parliament, which are scheduled for September 23, shows the specific nature of its political system. The main factors that distinguish Belarus from democratic countries are the marginal importance of the parliament, concentration of power in the institution of the president, the almost invisible role of the opposition and a defective system of counting votes (such as early voting), which encourages fraud and manipulation of the results. At the same time, the authorities do everything possible to maintain the status quo in the country. Not only does that mean that no single oppositional candidate has a chance to get a mandate in parliament but also that Belarusian authorities will try to avoid implementing necessary reforms, such as liberalisation of the political system or privatisation of state-owned enterprises, because they are afraid of losing power.

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№034: Any Chance for Inclusive Intergovernmentalism? The Prospects for a Franco-Polish Partnership in the European Union

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Krzysztof Soloch / Language(s): English

The uncertainty that is currently surrounding the EU’s political and economic future calls for new, innovative approaches to how European politics is handled. Perhaps crucially, the ongoing crisis has exposed divergences between the two most influential EU member states—France and Germany—thus creating a window of opportunity for cooperation in alignments that are either new, or which previously have not been tested in a meaningful way. The authors suggest than one of the possible avenues of cooperation would be an enhanced Franco-Polish partnership—a mutually beneficial arrangement that could provide much-needed leadership in select EU policy areas and contribute to strengthening the European project on the whole. While not necessarily a universal winning formula for the crisis-stricken EU, a closer, more focused Franco-Polish cooperation on the Common Foreign and Security Policy, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, or the future of European integration in general could serve as a testing ground for a more inclusive intergovernmental approach to EU policymaking.

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Aftermath of the Maidan. Ukrainian society two years after the revolution

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Two years after the Revolution of Dignity, it is clear that hopes of a quick reconstruction and modernisation of the Ukrainian state as a political and institutional system have not been fulfilled. The resistance of the bureaucrats, politicians and oligarchs who make up the informal, corrupt systems has proven to be very strong, and the will of part of the political elite and the EU and the United States to implement the procedures they have suggested has proved insufficient. If not for the war and the economic collapse, which forced Kyiv to seek external financial assistance and political support, the modernisation of the state would have proceeded even more slowly and with yet greater difficulty.

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A game played according to Lukashenka’s rules: the political opposition in Belarus

Author(s): Tomasz Bakunowicz / Language(s): English

The Belarusian opposition is currently experiencing its deepest crisis since Alyaksandr Lukashenka took power in 1994. Following many months of negotiations, opposition leaders failed to select a joint candidate for the presidential election scheduled for 11th October. The failure of this latest round of talks has proven that not only is the opposition unlikely to threaten Lukashenka’s rule; it will not even be able to demonstrate to society that it could provide a genuine alternative to the present government.The presidential election in 2010 was a painful landmark for the opposition. The repression that accompanied the election has largely weakened political circles opposed to the government. Against this backdrop, the traditional internal problems of the opposition have worsened, such as its incapacity to reach agreement and develop a common, coherent operational strategy, the excessive ambitions of the leaders of particular groups, the low level of political maturity, mutual distrust and frequent personal conflicts. As a result the opposition has for years been unable to gain confidence in society and reach beyond the limited number (20%) of staunch proponents of democratic transformations. Given the fact that the Belarusian opposition is fragmented and lacks one clear leader, the readiness to support individual leaders does not exceed several per cent, according to independent surveys. Lukashenka’s present political opponents rather resemble a group of dissidents, than constitute a genuine opposition to the government. The crisis and helplessness of opposition circles are more acute given Belarus’s internal situation since for the first time Alyaksandr Lukashenka will run his presidential campaign in the context of the economic crisis and a forecasted fall in GDP.

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Report: V4 Trade and FDI Observer No 2

Author(s): Erich Kříž,Katalin Antaloczy,Magdolna Sass,Patryk Toporowski,Karol Frank / Language(s): English

The Polish Institute of International Affairs recommends you the report: V4 Trade and FDI Observer: Panorama of Automotive Industry prepared under the project: V4 Trade and FDI Observer, financed by the International Visegrad Fund. PISM was represented in this project by Patryk Toporowski, PISM analyst, who was responsible in substance for a section on Poland.The report is the result of work of the small team of experts from the Visegrad Group countries: the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. Editor of the whole document is Tamás Szemler (ICEG European Centre). The aim of the report is the analysis of current trade and foreign direct investments in the automotive industry.

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Towards a V4 Position on the Future of Europe

Author(s): / Language(s): English

On 19 October 2012, representatives from the four Visegrad countries met in Warsaw, at PISM, to discuss national approaches to the current sovereign debt crisis and the EU’s increasing use of differentiated integration. The goal was to explore the potential of a joint response to hazards that might sideline the Four in EU affairs. The present report picks up on the issues discussed there, with contributions from Janusz Gąciarz, Radovan Kavický, David Král, László Sinka, Rafał Trzaskowski. By identifying much potential for future cooperation, the report, edited by Agata Gostyńska and Roderick Parkes, draws recommendations for the Visegrad Group that can ultimately result in their upgraded cooperation on the EU arena.

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Asserting the EU’s Mission in the Neighbourhood: Ten Recommendations for an Effective Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Kerry Longhurst,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

The authors consider that the EU needs to assert its role and mission in the Eastern neighbourhood with more vigour. To do this the Eastern Partnership needs to focus on the job of building up the rule of law and democracy in Eastern Europe. Though much has been achieved over the past two years, in terms of creating up the institutional framework for EaP, the reality is that democracy is back sliding in the region, corruption is endemic and social and economic catch-up of EaP countries towards EU levels is uncertain. Without fuller democratisation and promotion of the rule of law in the neighbourhood the implementation of EaP will be stunted.The Eastern Partnership holds the potential to do more but only if the EU develops a ‘democratic acquis’ replete with a precise reform agenda. Building up administrations and rooting out the sources and practices that perpetuate corruption should be a priority, twinned with a better capacity to support civil society and non-registered opposition groups and political parties, as envisaged in the European Endowment for Democracy. Negotiations on trade need to be accompanied by meaningful benefits and concessions that partner states can enjoy in the short and medium term if economies are to grow. Finally, to meet the expectations of those countries that value their European identities and where public support for the EU exists the effectiveness of EaP can be bolstered by stressing Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union. Emphasising a ‘European Perspective’ will remind partner states and EU members of the right that all European countries have to join the EU if they share EU values and fulfil economic and political membership criteria.

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From Lisbon to Europe 2020. Lisbon Strategy Implementation in 2010: Assessments and Prospects

Author(s): Marcin Koczor,Paweł Tokarski / Language(s): English

Polish Institute of International Affairs published a report "From Lisbon to Europe 2020. Lisbon Strategy implementation in 2010: Assessments and Prospects" by Marcin Koczor and Paweł Tokarski. The publication contains the evaluation of the implementation of the Lisbon Strategy for 2010, a summary of the entire duration of the strategy and describes the place of the current EU economic strategy, Europe 2020, in the process of economic governance reform. The report also includes conclusions and recommendations for the current strategy – Europe 2020.

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Context and Scenarios after the Referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s Independence

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Regardless of whether the referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence takes place as planned on 25 September, its result is known: most Iraqi Kurds will vote in favour of independence. Depending on how the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) uses the result, a negative scenario—the outbreak of violence and further disintegration of Iraq—is still more probable than a positive one that would lead to incremental, peaceful negotiations with the central authorities in Baghdad on greater Kurdish independence. The pressure from regional allies of the Kurds, the U.S., EU, and the UN, seems to be intense enough to stop the Iraqi Kurds from unilaterally declaring independence even if they go ahead with the referendum.

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Beijing’s mistaken offer: the ‘16+1’ and China’s policy towards the European Union

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English

Despite China’s growing political and economic involvement in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Beijing has not succeeded in making an attractive offer to the region’s EU member states – who make up the majority of the participants in the ‘16+1’ format. The financing model proposed by China, based on loans and favouritism towards Chinese companies, has proved to be unsuitable to local conditions. Therefore, the much-discussed infrastructure cooperation has not even started. Consequently, Beijing has failed to obtain the political tools which could have weakened policy coherence at the European level, or even divided the EU. In this context, the allegations appearing in the public debate that the countries of the ‘16+1’ have been fostering divisions within the EU seem to be substantially incorrect. As long as Central and Eastern Europe remains capable of pursuing its economic and developmental interests within the architecture of the European Union, the political risks coming from China’s capital inflow will remain limited. At the same time, the EU has room to facilitate constructive economic relationships between China and the Central European region. For example, it could reduce Beijing’s political pressure on CEE to use the specific, Chinese model for financing and building infrastructure. Cooperation at the EU level could also help to adapt the Chinese offer to the European business and regulatory environment.

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EGTCs: Assessment and Prospects

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Established in 2006, a legal instrument called European Groupings of Territorial Cooperation (EGTC) was intended to serve the objectives of EU cohesion policy and the Europe 2020 strategy. However, in Poland this instrument has been used at a small scale. The four EGTCs established on the Polish borders focus on projects that can be carried out through other forms of cooperation. Among the challenges that EGTCs should encompass are management of the environment or transport projects.

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The Implications of the Political Crisis in the Czech Republic

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

President Miloš Zeman’s dismissal of the Czech Republic’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, Andrei Babiš, and the appointment of Ivan Pilný to the office ends a political crisis that has lasted since the beginning of May. However, it has revealed an intense dispute between, on one side, Zeman and Babiš, chairman of the party Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO), and Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka, the head of the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), on the other. The circumstances of Babiš’s dismissal have politically strengthened Sobotka five months before parliamentary elections.

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Cyprus Reunification Talks: Conclusions for the EU

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Reunification of Cyprus is in EU countries’ interests. It would contribute to reinforcing stability in the Eastern Mediterranean region, benefit EU energy security, and help shape a new model of EU-Turkey relations. Thus, the EU should consider increasing its engagement in the reunification talks. It could play the role of guarantor of an agreement, as well as diminish Cypriot fears about security. Poland’s government could promote an intra-EU debate on that subject.

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Protests in Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Recent protests in Belarus pose a challenge for the authorities, because along with slogans calling for improved social conditions, which appeared for the first time since the 1990s, the demonstrators have increasingly formulated political demands. So far, the Belarusian authorities have reacted in a limited manner by imposing administrative sanctions almost only on the opposition activists. In the near future, the intensity of the demonstrations will probably continue and may turn massive. Violations of human rights by Belarusian authorities is possible. Moreover, new events may prompt Russia to engage in the country directly.

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Prospects for Compromise on Reform of the Common European Asylum System

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Supporters and opponents of the automatic redistribution of asylum-seekers have been unable to find compromise on changes to the Common European Asylum System for several months. Many Member States are against transferring the competences they hold on migration to the EU level. Thus, it’s worth working toward a solution that would enable relocation while maintaining Member State control over the influx of refugees to their territory.

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German Proposals for Increased Control of Online Media after the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English

The 2016 U.S. presidential election showed that the fight for voters on social media may have resulted in the spread of false information, propaganda and disinformation. In Germany’s upcoming election campaign, a similar scenario may unfold. To prevent it, the German government intends to take preventive measures, but against new forms of online threats they may prove insufficient.

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Intelligence Reports on Russian Interference in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Reports published by American intelligence confirm Russian special services’ interference in the 2016 presidential campaign. Russia used cyberoperations, media and other material to discredit Hillary Clinton to decrease her chances of success in the election and improve Donald Trump’s prospects. Russia’s ambitious operation will have profound consequences for the new U.S. administration and its foreign policy, and for American intelligence agencies. Appointments in the Trump administration are coinciding with ongoing investigations into some of the new president’s advisors’ ties to Russia, and with two U.S. Senate panel inquiries on American intelligence failures and mistakes in cyberdefence.

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The Visegrad Group in Czech Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The Czech Republic sees the Visegrad Group as a platform to build regional economic ties and an ad hoc political alliance, mainly, at present, as an instrument of collective opposition to mandatory migrant quotas proposed by the European Commission. Czech policy in the V4 is based on the principle that cooperation within the group cannot take place at the expense of close relations with Germany, nor can it become a policy of sustained opposition to European integration. The parliamentary election scheduled for autumn 2017, and the related focus of Czech politicians on internal matters, will reduce their activity in international forums, including the V4.

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The Visegrad Group from Hungary’s Perspective

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In the debate on the challenges facing Europe, Hungary’s ambition is to use the Visegrad Group (V4) to become a leader of a conservative political movement in the EU. Hungary has also strengthened its position within the group, in part due to the government’s firm position aimed at diminishing the effects of the migration crisis. The rejection of compulsory refugee quotas has unified the V4, due to which the EU might view Hungary as the driving force of the group. At the same time, the close similarity between Polish and Hungarian government positions on several issues enables Hungary to take advantage of the potential of Poland to reinforce its political position in the EU.

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Turkey after the Failed 15 July Coup: A Challenge for the EU and the U.S.

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy after the failed coup raises concerns for the European Union and the United States. Current developments in Turkey increase the political costs of Western leaders’ closer cooperation with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At the same time, Turkey accuses its allies of hypocrisy and a lack of understanding. Thus, relations between Turkey and its Western allies remain at an impasse, which could force Turkish decision-makers to look for alternative solutions in the political and security spheres. This constitutes a challenge for the EU and the United States, especially in the face of a deterioration of relations with Russia and the migrant crisis.

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