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Perspectives on the Russia-Turkey Partnership

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russia has declared it will cooperate with Turkey on armaments, in the joint fight against terrorism, and on common energy projects. However, the main goal of the Russian authorities is to weaken Turkey’s links with NATO and the EU. The relations of the two countries are characterised by ad hoc cooperation, and Turkey’s regional ambitions can hinder their partnership. The Russian-Turkish rapprochement is a challenge for Poland because it is contrary to the energy interests of Central Europe and complicates the security of NATO’s Eastern Flank.

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Ukraine: Naftohaz Restructuring in Question

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Ukraine has started reforming its gas sector simultaneous with its struggle against Russian aggression and trying to prevent the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would deprive the country of most of its current gas transit revenues. However, further reforms are hampered by the lack of political will among Ukrainian authorities. The slow pace of the reforms and a dispute between the government and management of Naftohaz have negatively affected Ukraine’s international image. These factors could lead to a situation in which gas transit via Ukraine no longer is considered a viable alternative to the new Gazprom pipelines, which would seriously undermine Poland’s diplomatic efforts in support of Ukraine’s opposition to Nord Stream 2.

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Ukraina: restrukturyzacja Naftohazu pod znakiem zapytania

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): Polish

Ukraina rozpoczęła reformę sektora gazowego, zmagając się z rosyjską agresją i próbując zapobiec budowie gazociągu Nord Stream 2, który pozbawi ją większości obecnych dochodów z tranzytu gazu. Jednak dalsze zmiany hamuje niewystarczająca wola polityczna ukraińskich władz. Wolne tempo reform i spór między rządem a kierownictwem Naftohazu negatywnie wpływają na międzynarodowy wizerunek Ukrainy. Czynniki te mogą sprawić, że tranzyt przez jej terytorium przestanie być uważany za wiarygodną alternatywę dla nowych gazociągów Gazpromu, oraz poważnie uderzą w dyplomatyczne wysiłki Polski, popierającej Ukrainę w sprawie Nord Stream 2.

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Współpraca Rosji z Arabią Saudyjską: potencjał i ograniczenia

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): Polish

Królestwo Arabii Saudyjskiej (KAS) i Rosja mają odmienne koncepcje rozwiązania konfliktu w Syrii, inaczej też postrzegają rolę Iranu w regionie Bliskiego Wschodu. Te różnice interesów sprawiają, że jak dotąd niewielką rolę odgrywała współpraca w sektorze zbrojeniowym. Nową płaszczyzną współdziałania rosyjsko-saudyjskiego jest branża energetyczna, zwłaszcza rynek ropy naftowej. Rosja upatruje we współpracy z Arabią Saudyjską instrumentu służącego podważeniu amerykańskich wpływów na Bliskim Wschodzie.

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“Coronapresidency”: German Priorities for the Presidency of the Council of the EU

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic is prompting the German government to reformulate its plans for the presidency of the Council of the EU starting on 1 July. Germany will focus on restarting the EU economy, taking into account the green energy transformation and the development of the EU’s digital policy. However, the key to achieving this goal will be the development of a compromise between the EU’s North and South regarding the principles of providing assistance and creating common financial tools in the euro area.

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Koronaprezydencja – niemieckie priorytety przewodnictwa w Radzie UE

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): Polish

Pandemia COVID-19 skłania rząd Niemiec do przeformułowania dotychczasowych planów prezydencji w Radzie UE. RFN skupi się na odbudowie unijnej gospodarki, z uwzględnieniem zielonej transformacji energetycznej oraz rozwoju polityki cyfrowej. Dla realizacji tego celu kluczowe będzie wypracowanie między krajami północy i południa UE kompromisu w sprawie zasad udzielania pomocy i stworzenia wspólnych narzędzi finansowych w strefie euro.

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Gazprom’s Struggle to Complete and Control Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Russia’s plans to complete the construction of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) and maintain Gazprom’s control over the gas pipeline after its launch are facing serious obstacles. The main challenges to the Russian company are that the key contractor has withdrawn from the project fearing U.S. sanctions and the requirement to apply EU law to the pipeline. Russia is now trying to finish NS2 construction using its own means and ensure that the institutions regulating the status of the pipeline interpret EU law in Gazprom’s favour.

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Starania Gazpromu o ukończenie Nord Stream 2 i utrzymanie nad nim kontroli

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjskie plany ukończenia budowy Nord Stream 2 oraz utrzymania nad nim kontroli przez Gazprom po uruchomieniu napotykają poważne komplikacje. Główne wyzwania stojące przed rosyjską spółką to wycofanie się kluczowego podwykonawcy w obawie przed objęciem go sankcjami USA i zastosowanie do gazociągu prawa UE. W związku z tym Rosjanie starają się dokończyć budowę Nord Stream 2 własnymi środkami i przeforsować korzystną dla nich interpretację unijnego prawa przed organami uprawnionymi do uregulowania statusu gazociągu.

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Latvia’s Climate Policy

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

At the end of January 2020, the Latvian government approved the country’s climate neutrality strategy until 2050, and in March it supported even more ambitious EU targets for reducing emissions. These declarations are connected with the need for a thorough transformation of the economy. The Latvian authorities combine these changes with the outlook for economic growth, including the development of the newest technologies in the energy sector. Latvia’s approach, subordinated to climate action, coincides with the policy of other countries in the region, but differs from the Polish vision of energy transformation.

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Polityka klimatyczna Łotwy

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): Polish

Pod koniec stycznia br. łotewski rząd zatwierdził strategię neutralności klimatycznej kraju do 2050 r., a w marcu br. poparł jeszcze ambitniejsze cele UE dotyczące redukcji emisji. Deklaracje te wiążą się z koniecznością gruntownej transformacji gospodarki. Łotewskie władze łączą te zmiany z perspektywą wzrostu gospodarczego, m.in. poprzez rozwój najnowszych technologii w energetyce. Podejście Łotwy, podporządkowane działaniom na rzecz klimatu, pokrywa się z polityką pozostałych państw regionu, ale różni się od polskiej wizji transformacji energetycznej.

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Historyczne porozumienie w Paryżu: znaczenie dla Polski i Unii Europejskiej

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

W Paryżu 12 grudnia 2015 r. wynegocjowano pierwsze od prawie 20 lat porozumienie, którego celem jest zapobiegnięcie nieodwracalnym skutkom zmian klimatu. Najważniejsze cechy nowej umowy to jej globalny zakres – wszystkie 195 państw będzie musiało redukować emisje gazów cieplarnianych, oraz trwałość – nie wyznaczono daty końca jej obowiązywania. Powstał zatem system koordynacji działań na całym świecie, co oznacza, że Unia Europejska nie będzie prowadziła polityki klimatycznej w odosobnieniu. Zmniejszy to negatywne konsekwencje dla konkurencyjności europejskiej, ale też polskiej gospodarki.

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Sustainable Development Goals and Post-2015 Development Agenda

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

On 25–27 September at the UN Summit, world leaders will accept Sustainable Development Goals to set up the agenda for development cooperation until 2030. The goals underline the inextricable link between development and climate, downgrade the role of official development assistance at the expense of other financing, and engage new instruments and partners, including the private sector and civil society, in the mobilisation of resources. As a result, the EU will need to step up its support for developing countries for its own security and stability and Poland can recognise the importance of this dimension in its external relations.

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Cele zrównoważonego rozwoju: nowa agenda pomocy międzynarodowej po 2015 r.

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Podczas szczytu ONZ w Nowym Jorku 25–27 września przywódcy krajów przyjmą nowe cele zrównoważonego rozwoju, które wyznaczą kierunki międzynarodowej współpracy rozwojowej do 2030 r. Nowa agenda zmierza do całkowitej eliminacji ubóstwa na świecie, podkreśla nierozerwalny związek między rozwojem a klimatem i ogranicza znaczenie pomocy rozwojowej na rzecz innych przepływów finansowych i zaangażowania nowych partnerów: biznesu i społeczeństwa dla mobilizowania zasobów. Podczas gdy UE wzmacnia swoje wsparcie dla krajów rozwijających się, także Polska powinna nadać większą wagę temu narzędziu polityki zagranicznej i lepiej je wykorzystać.

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Too green, too fast, too dear. The AfD is gaining popularity in Germany

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

The popularity of the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) is growing, as confirmed by its second place in the latest opinion polls, putting it on a par with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SDP, and that is raising great concern in Germany. The factors which have contributed to the AfD’s success include the public dissatisfaction with the incumbent government and the overlapping consequences of the Ukraine war and the inflation, climate and migration crises. The SPD-Green-FDP government coalition has presented different, often inconsistent approaches to these challenges. This has been coupled with Scholz’s deliberate passiveness as he shuns disputes inside the coalition in an attempt to improve his popularity ratings. This strategy has been successful up to a certain point, but is currently failing, and as a result the Chancellor is being blamed for the situation in the coalition. The AfD is benefitting from this, while also capitalizing on the fears most Germans share about the pace of the changes being implemented as part of the government’s climate policy. The party is also an advocate for voters who oppose the excessive influx of migrants to Germany and further support for Ukraine. Residents of the eastern federal states are particularly sensitive to these issues, where the AfD leads the polls with over 30%, and is viewed as a ‘catch-all’ or mass party, and not merely a fringe movement. This is particularly important given the upcoming elections to the parliaments of Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia scheduled for autumn 2024, which will be the final electoral test before the Bundestag elections in 2025.

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At all costs. Germany shifts to LNG

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting collapse of the concept of an energy alliance between Berlin and Moscow, have become the catalysts for Germany to change its approach to building LNG import infrastructure. In order to become permanently independent of Russian supplies, Berlin has made an enormous financial effort to build its own terminals at record speed and on an unprecedented scale. The facilities planned will not only enable Germany to meet its economy’s demand for gas, but will also help it to maintain its role as the gas hub for Central Europe, which has been somewhat weakened recently. They will also allow it to continue to use gas as a transition fuel during the period of the country’s energy transition (Energiewende).

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Unfulfilled ambitions: Russia’s LNG sector in the grip of sanctions

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

The technological sanctions which the West has imposed on Russia’s LNG sector have drastically reduced the opportunities for the industry’s expansion, and made it less likely that Russia can increase its share on the global LNG market. Moreover, the Russian Federation’s ambitious targets for LNG production capacity have not been formally revised, which means that it is now virtually impossible to achieve them. The slim chances of Russia’s LNG production capacity increasing over the coming years have a negative impact on the country’s overall gas exports. In view of Moscow’s political decision to slash pipeline supplies to Europe, liquefied gas could help Russia to mitigate the consequences of this reduction as long as there are no formal restrictions on its imports to the EU; it could also ensure that European consumers remain partly dependent on Russian gas. However, the tough restrictions on technology exports to Russia have significantly reduced the likelihood of this scenario becoming a reality.

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Slovakia in Emergency Mode - Assessing the Performance of the First Technical Government

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Despite failing to win a vote of confidence in mid-June, Ludovit Ódor’s technical government will run the state until early general elections in September. Its main task is to stabilise the political situation after the previous dismissal of Eduard Heger’s government, whose policy it is continuing. Despite friendly gestures and interests converging with Poland, including in the field of Eastern and energy policy, cooperation will be limited due to the legal restrictions of the government, which has a transitional character.

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The calm before the storm: the state and prospects of Russia’s oil sector

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have serious consequences for the health of the Russian oil sector, which is one of the most important branches of the country’s economy. Although its production and export performance, and consequently its budget revenues, remained high in2022, the situation began to worsen in December, and the negative trend is likely to continue in the coming months. The main reason for this state of affairs is the sanctions introduced by Western countries, in particular the European Union’s embargo on imports of Russian oil and petroleum products. Russia’s government and companies have taken adaptive measures, such as reconfiguring the directions of oil exports; however, economic, infrastructural and political constraints may make it much more difficult to follow through with the plan for sustainable market diversification. Thus, the EU embargo may lead to a significant reduction in oil production in Russia over the coming years, which will worsen the country’s financial and economic health. The ultimate effect of the restrictions will depend on the determination of Western countries and the pace at which they implement sanctions, as well as the attitudes of Moscow’s other trading partners.

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Germany: how the gas sector changed in the crisis year of 2022

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the mounting energy and gas crisis in Europe,2022 saw a spell of permanent crisis management in the German energy sector, in particular gas. The structure of Germany’s imports has changed significantly: shipments from Russia, its former principal supplier, have ceased; and Germany has had to launch extremely costly emergency measures to find alternative suppliers on the global market. The war has pushed Berlin to take numerous steps to diversify its supplies, in particular to develop its LNG import infrastructure at a rapid and unprecedented pace. A significant reduction in gas consumption, mild weather and LNG supplies have all enabled Germany to fill its gas storage facilities and avoid the risk of gas shortages this winter. Major changes have also occurred in the management and ownership structure of the German gas sector: Berlin has nationalised the SEFE (Gazprom Germania) and Uniper companies, which has enabled the German state to seize control of the country’s key gas infrastructure and its strategically important gas importers. All these factors have contributed to a major weakening of Germany’s energy ties with Russia.

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Russia: export restrictions and mobilisation – more blows to the economy

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

In Q3 2022, the economy of the Russian Federation increasingly suffered negative consequences from the sanctions imposed on Russian exports. A ban on imports of a substantial part of Russian steel and iron into the EU came into force in mid-June, followed by a ban on imports such as cement and wood on 10 July, and a ban on coal imports on 10 August. The mood among business and the public soured further with the military mobilisation announced on 21 September, which also had a negative impact on the domestic outlook. As a result, the Russian budget is coming under increasing strain.

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